| Is the payoff worth the prospects you lose? | 07.09.09 at 11:12 am ET |
Now that Roy Halladay‘s name has been tossed out there as a possible trade target for the Red Sox, a very common argument is revisited: do you give up the prospects for the veteran?
There are two schools of thought here. The first is that it is safer to trade an unknown commodity for a known commodity. The second is that it is risky to sacrifice a potential career’s worth of stardom for a few years of service.
Plenty of fans were up in arms about shipping Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to Florida for Josh Beckett, Guillermo Mota and that meaningless throw-in named Mike Lowell. The end result? Pretty amazing for both teams. The Red Sox got a World Series out of the deal, thanks to a dominant postseason performance by Beckett and WS MVP Lowell.
The Marlins? Well, aside from owning property on the DL, Sanchez threw a no-no in ’06. As for Ramirez, who did you take with the first overall pick this year in your fantasy league?
The Marlins/Red Sox trade is truly a rare case because it is such a clear-cut win-win. It is far more common that the result sway in favor of one team. For example, many prospect-obsessed fans were probably hesitant when the Sox shipped Carl Pavano and Tony Armas, Jr. to Montreal in exchange for Pedro Martinez. A good trade for both teams? Hardly. Totally worth the hit Boston’s farm system took.
More recently, the Red Sox were in serious talks with the Twins about Johan Santana. It’s hard to say exactly what the deal would have been, but the consensus was that the Sox were offering Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden/Justin Masterson in addition to either Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. The Twins asked for both Lester and Ellsbury. Enter Facebook’s debut as voice of the fans.
As time goes on and Lester cements his status as a top-two starter, it will probably become clearer that the Sox made the right move in holding onto their guys. Nevertheless, the intense banter that took place among fans that offseason was outstanding. I know, where were Slugfests when you needed them?
How about the Coco Crisp trade? Pink hats were drooling at the notion of having a t-shirt that said “Coco” on the back, but anyone with a Baseball America Prospect Handbook was terrified of letting go of Andy Marte. End result? Everyone sucked. Except maybe Kelly Shoppach.
(Don’t call it a comeback– the 25-year-old Marte could finish the season at Columbus hitting .300 in the minors for the first time in his career. He’s currently at .319.)
The reason most fans are hell-bent on holding onto prospects is two-fold. First of all, they’ve seen the success with homegrown guys that could have been traded at one point (I do recall Ted Sarandis telling a young caller named DJ Bean that he was “disappointed” in people like him for not wanting to trade a shortstop prospect named Dustin Pedroia for Jason Schmidt). Secondly, they are aware of the great careers that Boston missed out on in the past.

Eh, they'll never pan out
Flashback to 1988. The Red Sox trade a couple of prospects for Mike Boddicker. The Sox got some great production (39 wins in two and a half seasons) out of Boddicker, so it all worked out for Boston, right? Sure, except the prospects were Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling.
If that wasn’t bad enough, you know what’s coming next. That’s right: Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen. This trade, along with perhaps Schilling, Pete Harnisch, and Steve Finley for Glenn Davis, is the worst-case scenario when general managers consider giving up young players. It’s a deal that gave the Red Sox 22 innings of middle relief and the Astros 449 homers. Not exactly a wash.
The list goes on and on, and it doesn’t only apply to baseball. Though they were immediately silenced by the final product, many Celtics fans were unhappy with the decision to ship a package of first-rounders and Al Jefferson in the Kevin Garnett deal. And an early second-round pick for Corey Dillon? Please. The endgame, of course, remains championships. If you get a ring out of the deal, there’s no looking back. Hanley Ramirez may go on to shatter all sorts of records, but the only record applying to the deal that matters in Boston is 4-0: Boston’s World Series record since the trade.
Do Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, and Lars Anderson all appear to have bright futures? Sure, but it’s also hard to pass on a rotation of Beckett, Halladay, Lester, Wakefield, and Penny/Smoltz.

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